We present here a straightforward empirical correlation between petroleum occurrence in sedimentary basins and reservoir temperature that can be integrated with other methods of analysis to reduce exploration risk. Global amounts of recoverable oil, gas, and gas-condensate in 1175 well characterized reservoirs from 954 of the world’s largest fields, constituting 54% of the world’s documented recoverable conventional oil and 50% of gas, are examined in terms of present-day reservoir temperature. Most volumes (74%) occur within the range of 60–120 ± 2 °C (140–248 ±4 °F), corresponding with the isotherm-bounded depth interval in petroliferous basins previously defined as the “Golden Zone” for exploration. Only 6% of the global total occurs at higher temperatures and 20% at lower temperatures. The decrease <58 °C is gradual in most regions, whereas the drop-off of discovered volumes >122 °C is precipitous. The low-temperature limit is suggested to reflect both poor sealing capacity of diagenetically immature shales and biodegragation, but many low-temperature accumulations survive because of uplift from previous maximum burial. The high-temperature limit is interpreted as resulting mainly from diagenetically induced overpressure that causes seal failure and remigration. Similarity between the distributions of both oil and gas with temperature indicates that the controlling processes are unrelated to petroleum generation. The distributions are also similar for sandstone and carbonate reservoirs and for reservoirs with shale, evaporite, and carbonate seals, indicating little lithologic influence. Although the ultimate controls can be debated and are certainly in need of continuing study, the observed temperature dependence of petroleum volumes is entirely empirical and can be used as an independent exploration risk factor. Nevertheless, the proportions of total estimated ultimate recovery above and below the Golden Zone temperature limits vary significantly between major petroleum-producing regions, so local calibration is essential.

Written by Shaoqing Sun.

“This article represents the culmination of years of dedicated study to mature from concept to completion. We hope that our efforts will help advance the scientific application of global analogues in reducing exploration risk and uncertainty. Unrestricted access to analogue intelligence is something I strongly believe in, and I am therefore happy to say that this study is available for all via open access. Our article presents a straightforward correlation between petroleum occurrence in sedimentary basins and reservoir temperature that can be integrated with other methods of analysis to reduce exploration risk. Although the ultimate controls on petroleum occurrence can be debated and are certainly in need of continuing study, the observed temperature dependence of petroleum volumes is entirely empirical and can be used as an independent exploration risk factor”.